The Montana Senate race may be the most important Senate race of 2024. If Kamala Harris is elected president, the Montana Senate election will likely determine control of the Senate. A Napolitan News survey of Registered Voters found that Democrat Jon Tester currently holds a narrow lead Republican Tim Sheehy in the Montana Senate Race (49% to 44%).
However, the reality of Montana’s political gravity suggests that this race will be very competitive. Donald Trump holds a 53% to 35% lead over Kamala Harris in the presidential race. Sixteen percent (16%) of Trump voters currently plan to vote for Tester.
On top of that, if Montana voters knew that their vote would determine control of the U.S. Senate, 55% would vote for the Republican, and just 37% would vote for the Democrat. Seventeen percent (17%) of Tester’s voters would prefer GOP control of the Senate.
During the fall of a presidential campaign season, downballot races generally shift to some degree in the direction of the state’s presidential preference. In this case, that means the numbers are likely to shift in Sheehy’s direction, but by how much is unknown.
Looking at the larger Senate map, the Republicans are almost certain to pick up the West Virginia seat currently held by Joe Manchin. That would give them 50 seats. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election that would give the GOP control of the Senate.
If, however, Kamala Harris is elected president, the GOP would need one more seat to win control. Of the several races considered tossups or competitive, most are leaning towards the Democrats at this time. Montana is likely the best opportunity for Republicans and the biggest risk for Democrats.
