Polling Recap: Senate Races in Key States

Republicans are heavily favored to win control of the U.S. Senate on November 5. GOP candidates appear to be gaining ground in several midwestern states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If the GOP were to win all four of those seats, they would have a 55-45 majority in the Senate. If they lose all four,…

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 50% Hovde (R) 47%

The latest Napolitan News survey of Wisconsin voters shows that incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by three percentage points, 50% to 47%. That three point edge is within the surveys Margin of Sampling Error. This suggests the race has tightened since our September survey which showed Baldwin enjoying a six point…

Nevada Senate: Rosen (D) 56% Brown (R) 40%

The latest Napolitan News survey of Nevada voters shows that incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown, 56% to 40%. Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans plan on voting for the Democratic Senate candidate. The presidential race tied at 49%, so voter turnout remains the key to victory in Nevada. Democrats are favored to win…

Arizona Senate: Gallego (D) 52% Lake (R) 42%

In Arizona’s Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego has a ten point lead (52% to 42%) over Republican Kari Lake (when leaners are included). Data released earlier today shows Donald Trump with a four point advantage over Kamala Harris in Arizona. Thirty-eight percent (38%) have a favorable view of Kari Lake while 58% have an unfavorable view. Ruben…

Florida Senate: Scott (R) 50% Mucarsel-Powell (D) 44%

Republican incumbent Rick Scott holds a six point lead against Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (50% to 44%) in Florida’s senate race. This is the only state where we’ve found the Republican Senate candidate enjoying a larger margin over their opponent than former President Trump enjoys over Vice President Harris. However, it’s significant to note that Scott’s share…

TEXAS: Cruz (R) 50% Allred (D) 47%

In the race for Texas’ senate seat, incumbent Senator Ted Cruz is leading 50% to 47% to Representative Colin Allred. Texas is one of only two states where Democrats have faint hopes of flipping a Senate seat. The other is Florida and we’ll have results on that Senate race later in the week. Napolitan News…

Michigan Senate: Slotkin (D) 49% Rogers (R) 43%

The latest Napolitan News survey of likely voters in Michigan shows that Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a six point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers (49% to 43%). In all three of the “Blue Wall” states, the Democratic Senate candidates hold solid leads (see results for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). The presidential races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin…

Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 51% Hovde (R) 45%

The latest Napolitan News survey of Wisconsin voters shows that incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by six percentage points, 50% to 44%. Data released earlier shows Vice President Harris has just a single-point advantage over former president Trump in the race for Wisconsin’s Electoral College votes. While the Democrats are favored to…