The latest Napolitan News survey of Wisconsin voters shows that incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by six percentage points, 50% to 44%. Data released earlier shows Vice President Harris has just a single-point advantage over former president Trump in the race for Wisconsin’s Electoral College votes.
While the Democrats are favored to win the Senate race in Wisconsin, Republicans are heavily favored to win control of the Senate. The GOP is almost certain to pick up Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia which would likely get them to 50 seats. Our latest polling shows that Republicans are also favored to win the Montana Senate race.
The Senate race in Ohio is a tossup, but Republican Bernie Moreno has a slim 48% to 46% advantage. Moreno benefits from the fact that Donald Trump is leading the presidential race in Ohio by 11 points.
In Pennsylvania, the race for the White House is tied, however Democratic Incumbent Bob Casey Jr. holds a solid lead in his bid for re-election.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial ballot question to determine the candidate preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask in Wisconsin– the number without leaners– it was Baldwin 50% and Hovde 44%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 788 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 17-23, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
