In our last presidential poll before election day, Kamala Harris has a one-point edge over Donald Trump in the national popular vote. It’s Harris 50%, Trump 49% (with leaners).
Among Likely Voters with postgraduate degrees, Harris leads by a 64% to 35% margin. Among all other voters, Trump leads by 4 points.
Since Harris joined the race in late July, the two candidates have never been more than five points apart. Over the last five weeks, they’ve never been more than three points apart. Last week, Harris had Trump was behind Harris by three points. The week before, the race was tied in the popular vote.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the candidate preference for each voter. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask this week– the number without leaners– Harris 49% Trump 48%. In other words, each candidate gained a point when leaners were added.
Four years ago, Scott Rasmussen explained why it is problematic for public pollster to release data in the final two weeks of an election. “Public pollsters act like a bartender who keeps pouring whiskey for a drunk customer and is then surprised when the customer wrecks his car on the way home.”
Napolitan News will continue to follow that policy. This national poll will be our final election polling release for 2024. Instead, as election day gets closer, we will “offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters“.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 2,950 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen October 14-16, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 1.8. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
