After enjoying a temporary debate bounce, Vice President Harris’ slight advantage over former President Trump has returned to pre-debate levels.
The latest Napolitan News national survey shows Kamala Harris at 50% and Donald Trump at 48% (including leaners). Last week, Harris had a 51% to 47% advantage. The current numbers are essentially the same as the pre-debate polling.
Other recent data showed that the debate had little to no impact on perceptions of the candidates and key issues. Additionally, Napolitan News Service polling showed that supporters of both Harris and Trump are very confident their team will win.
In practical terms, the difference between a 2-point popular vote victory and a 4-point victory for Harris are huge. If she were to win a 2-point popular vote victory, the race would be considered a tossup in the Electoral College. However, with a 4-point popular vote victory, the Vice President would be favored to win the Electoral College.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the candidate preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask this week– the number without leaners– Harris had a three point edge, 50% to 47%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 2,969 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 16-19, 2024. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
