Kamala Harris has a modest three point lead over Donald Trump (50% to 47%) after being tied last week.
If Harris were to win the popular vote by three points, the race would remain a tossup because the Electoral College could go either way at that point. With 25 days to go, it’s still too close to call.
Harris has an 85% to 14% lead among Black voters, and a 66% to 33% lead among Hispanic voters. Among White voters, Trump leads 55% to 42%.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the candidate preference for each voter. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask this week– the number without leaners– Harris 49% Trump 47%.
Four years ago, Scott Rasmussen explained why it is problematic for public pollster to release data in the final two weeks of an election. “Public pollsters act like a bartender who keeps pouring whiskey for a drunk customer and is then surprised when the customer wrecks his car on the way home.”
Napolitan News will continue to follow that policy. Next Friday, October 18, will be our final election polling release for 2024. Instead, as election day gets closer, we will “offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters“.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 2,945 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen October 7-10, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 1.8. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
