The latest Napolitan News national survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied at 49% (including leaners). This is the first time the candidates have been tied in our national polling since mid-August.
Since then, Harris has consistently maintained a very modest lead. Last week, Harris had a two point edge.
Harris leads by five among women while Trump has a six point advantage among men.
Harris leads by an astounding 30 points among voters with a postgraduate degree (64% to 34%). Trump leads among all other voters by six (52% to 46%). Harris’ lead among postgraduates highlights some of the disparity between Elites and everyday Americans. The Napolitan Institute released a report today further highlighting other disparities between the Elite 1% and the rest of America.
A tie in the popular vote would likely lead to an Electoral College victory for Trump. A two-point popular vote victory by Harris would make the Electoral College race a toss-up.
Polling released yesterday showed Trump leading by four in Florida. Other recent Napolitan News surveys have shown close races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has significant leads in Ohio and Montana.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the voter preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask this week– the number without leaners– the candidates were tied at 48%.
Napolitan News Service will conduct its last national poll for the presidential race 2 weeks before election day. As election day gets closer, we strive to “offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters“.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 2,965 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 30-October 3, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 1.8. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
