On a private briefing for Napolitan Institute Gold Circle Members, Scott Rasmussen said, “If the election were held today, Donald Trump would likely win.”
Rasmussen noted that he reviews the polling averages daily and considers what they might look like if they shifted in either direction.
At the moment, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average shows the national popular vote tied (as does the New York Times latest poll). A tie in the national popular vote would likely result in an Electoral College victory for Trump. If the average shifted two points in Harris’ direction, she would be up two points, essentially the same as Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin in 2016. The race would then be very close in the Electoral College.
The 538 average shows Harris up by 1.7 percentage points. In that case, shifting the numbers two points in Harris’ direction would give her a 3.7 point lead, less than President Biden’s 4.5 percentage point victory in 2020.
Based upon the polling averages, therefore, the best outcomes for Harris put her in toss-up territory for the Electoral College. For what it’s worth, the 538 average performed better than RCP in the 2022 midterms. However, RCP was closer to the mark in both the 2020 and 2016 elections.
These averages, of course, are not the only indicator. In three key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—Trump appears to have the advantage. That assessment is based both upon the polling and the political gravity of the state. If he wins those three, Trump would have 262 Electoral College votes and need to win one of the three “Blue Wall” states to secure victory. That’s the same dynamic as in 2016.
All three of those states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—have been very close in the last two presidential elections. They must each individually be considered a tossup. The challenge for Harris is that she has to win all three of those tossups while Trump only needs one.
Having said all that, the race is close enough that a Harris victory remains a credible possibility. One area of concern for the Trump campaign is North Carolina, where the hurricane damage could dramatically impact turnout. Another, of course, is that Harris could pull the political equivalent of an inside straight and win all three Blue Wall states.
Perhaps the biggest threat to Trump at this point is the turnout game. Some believe the Harris effort is stronger and may bring more unenthusiastic voters to the polls. Additionally, Election Day weather could impact turnout. A major blizzard in the Blue Wall states would likely hurt Trump turnout more than Harris.
Beyond that, there is a week-and-a-half until the election. While it’s hard to imagine what events could change the dynamic and end Trump’s momentum, October surprises are always possible.
Still, while the chance of a Harris victory remains quite credible, Trump is now favored. The election is his to lose.
To learn more about The Napolitan Institute’s Gold Circle Membership, please contact goldcircle@napolitaninsitute.org.