The latest Napolitan News survey of Wisconsin voters shows that incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by three percentage points, 50% to 47%. That three point edge is within the surveys Margin of Sampling Error. This suggests the race has tightened since our September survey which showed Baldwin enjoying a six point lead over Hovde.
A key issue that has been in play in Wisconsin is allowing transgender athletes to participate in women’s sports. The Hovde campaign has been focusing on Baldwin’s stance on the issue, pointing it out in speeches and running ads saying that Baldwin “voted to let biological men into women’s sports.” This is an issue impacting Democratic candidates in a number of states.
22% of Wisconsin voters say their personal finances are getting better while 43% say their finances are getting worse. That’s more pessimistic than the national average. Among all voters nationwide, 26% say their finances are getting better while 39% say worse. While people aren’t overly optimistic about their finances, their assessment of their finances has held steady throughout recent months.
Republicans are heavily favored to win control of the Senate. Updated numbers on senate races in Michigan and Florida will be released later this week, along with Presidential numbers in each state and nationally.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial ballot question to determine the voter preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask in Wisconsin– the number without leaners– it was Baldwin 49% and Hovde 46%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 787 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on October 10-16, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
