The latest Napolitan News survey of Pennsylvania voters shows that incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. leads Republican David McCormick by six percentage points, 50% to 44%. Data released earlier shows the race for the White House in Pennsylvania is tied at 49%.
If their vote determined control of the Senate, 49% of Pennsylvania voters would prefer Republican control, while 48% would want the Democrats in charge.
While the Democrats are favored to win the Senate race in Pennsylvania, Republicans are heavily favored to win control of the Senate. The GOP is almost certain to pick up Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia which would likely get them to 50 seats. Our latest polling shows that Republicans are also favored to win the Montana Senate race.
The Senate race in Ohio is a tossup, but Republican Bernie Moreno has a slim 48% to 46% advantage. Moreno benefits from the fact that Donald Trump is leading the presidential race in Ohio by 11 points.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial ballot question to determine the candidate preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask in Pennsylvania– the number without leaners– it was Casey 49% and McCormick 43%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 783 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 18-20, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
