The latest Napolitan News survey of Ohio voters shows that Republican Bernie Moreno attracts 48% of the vote, while incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is two points back at 46%.
Moreno benefits from the fact that Donald Trump is leading the presidential race in Ohio by 11 points. This race is a classic test as to whether or not a long-term and popular incumbent can overcome the political gravity of a state. The Senate race is closer than the presidential because Brown is supported by 93% of Harris voters while Moreno is currently supported by 83% of Trump voters.
Moreno also benefits from the fact that, if their vote determined control of the Senate, 51% of Ohio voters would prefer Republican control, while 43% would want the Democrats in charge.
While this race is a tossup, Republicans are heavily favored to win control of the Senate. The GOP currently holds 49 Senate seats and is virtually certain to pick up Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia. If that were the only seat to flip, it would be a 50-50 Senate, and whichever party wins the White House would control the Senate (since the Vice President casts the deciding vote).
However, Republicans are also favored to win the Montana Senate race. That’s another example of a long-term Democratic incumbent—Jon Tester– struggling because the state’s political gravity is moving heavily in the GOP’s favor. Tester is in a more challenging position than Brown because Trump is currently leading in Montana by 21 points.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 781 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 18-20, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
