Republican Tim Sheehy leads Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in the Montana Senate race by seven percentage points. The Napolitan News survey found that Sheehy earns 50% of the vote while Tester attracts 43%.
These numbers reflect a big change from our summer survey showing Tester ahead by five. The primary reason is Republican voters coming home. In the summer, Sheehy had only a 53 point advantage among Republicans (72% to 19%). Now he’s up by 71 within his own party (81% to 10%).
If their vote would decide control of the Senate, 57% of Montana voters would vote for a Republican. This suggests that if Montana is seen as the key to control of the Senate, there is some potential upside for Sheehy.
Data released earlier showed Donald Trump leading the presidential race in Montana by twenty-one points.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 491 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 12-19, 2024. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
