Tuesday’s debate appears to have given Vice President Harris a modest bounce in the race for the White House. The latest Napolitan News National Survey shows Kamala Harris at 51% and Donald Trump at 47% (including leaners). That four-point advantage is up from a two point-edge (50% to 48%) in our last pre-debate poll.
Two thirds of the survey interviews were conducted AFTER Tuesday’s debate.
It remains to be seen whether this is merely a short-term bounce or the beginning of a lasting change in the race. We’ll have to wait for next week’s results to gain a better sense of it.
In practical terms, the difference between a 2-point popular vote victory and a 4-point victory for Harris are huge. If she were to win a 2-point popular vote victory, the race would be considered a tossup in the Electoral College. However, with a 4-point popular vote victory, the Vice President would be favored to win the Electoral College.
Data released earlier today showed that supporters of both Harris and Trump are very confident their team will win.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 2,756 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 9-12, 2024. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
