In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters.
These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.
As a result, the race for the White House remains too close to call. Anybody who says they know who will win is either lying to you or to themselves.
Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout.
What’s especially amazing about this close race is that it’s quite plausible to envision either party winning a trifecta: control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. The most important race to determine Senate control is in Montana. The latest Napolitan News survey there shows Democrat Jon Tester with a narrow lead but the state’s political gravity is likely to boost Republican Tim Sheehy.
