The latest Napolitan News survey in Michigan shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a very slight lead over former president Donald Trump (50% to 47%). That three point gap is within the polls’ margin of sampling error.
Harris leads among those with a post graduate degree (70% to 28%), while Trump leads among all other voters (49% to 47%).
Determining who is likely to vote is challenging, especially this far in advance of an election. So, Napolitan News considers a range of possible turnout indicators. Among those most likely to vote, the race is even closer with Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%. This suggests that an exceptionally large turnout might benefit Harris more than Trump.
Like the races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the race in Michigan remains too close to call. A recent column by Scott Rasmussen provided “Five Reasons Nobody Knows Who is Going to Win” the presidential race at this time.
In the Michigan Senate race, Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a six-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers.
Nationally, Napolitan News releases new data each Friday.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the candidate preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask– the number without leaners– it was Harris 50% and Trump 46%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 789 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 24-27, 2024. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5.
