The latest Napolitan News national survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris at 50% and former president Donald Trump at 48% (including leaners). This is unchanged from a week ago.
The race remains remarkably stable. Over the past five weeks, Harris’ support has been between 49% and 51% every week. During that same time frame, Trump’s numbers have been between 47% and 49% every week.
A two-point popular vote victory by Harris would make the Electoral College race a toss-up. Napolitan News polling released this past week shows that the swing state races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are toss-ups. Trump has double-digit leads in the Red States of Ohio and Montana.
Among voters with a post-graduate degree, Harris leads by a stunning 34 percentage points (66% to 32%). Her lead with those who hold a bachelors degree is a much more modest eight points (52% to 44%). Those without a college degree favor Trump by seven (53% to 46%). As is often the case, the gap between those with a postgraduate degree and those with a bachelors degree (26 points) is significantly wider than the gap between those with a bachelors degree and no degree (15 points).
Among Republicans, those who favor Trump-like policies outnumber those who favor Traditional Republican policies by a 3-to-1 margin. While 70% of those who favor Traditional Republican policies say they will vote for Trump, a significant number (27%) of these Traditional Republicans plan to vote for Harris. That represents just over 3% of all voters.
On the Democratic side of the aisle, Harris as a progressive Democrat faces no such defections from Traditional Democrats.
This suggests that the Harris’ polling lead is dependent upon a small sliver of voters who prefer Traditional Republican policies. They may be uncomfortable with many Harris’ policies but are unwilling to support the former president.
Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the candidate preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”
On the initial ask this week– the number without leaners– Harris had a two-point edge, 49% to 47%.
This Napolitan News Service survey of 2,952 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 23-25, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 1.8. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.
